Fundamental Analysis / Intraday Trading Tips

Whenever you look at a currency pair you have to take into consideration, beside technical analysis, the fundametal part. Fundamental analysis is actually quite straight forward and means being aware of the economic context of the two currencies that form the pair, like unemployment rate, interest rate differential, industrial production, capacity utilization, gross domestic product (GDP), consumer price index (CPI = preffered method of measuring inflation), etc, to name only a few.

However, trading is not about undertanding how economies function and what a specific number means for the respective economy, but trying to put that number into perspective and, together with your technical analysis on the pair, trying to analyse the evolution of the currency pair as a whole. For example, as a tip for the future traders to be, be aware that you are not trading a currency, but a pair. In the case of the eurusd currency pair, you are not trading the euro as a currecny, nor the dollar as a currency. But the pair, eurusd. This is extremely important because, lets say you are bear on the euro. The fundamentals in the Eurozone are so weak and troubles mounting all over the place that it is impossible for the euro to rise. So you sell the eurusd. Wrong. While you may be right assuming the euro is in a bad shape, and the currency is bearish, but maybe the dollar is even bearisher than the euro. And that would make the currency pair, the eurusd rise.

To be succesfull you need to be updated all the time with what’s about to happen on the week in front of you when you are trading. Look at future economic releases that are already scheduled, at the time of the release, at the fixings between the sessions (Asian, European, North American), at option expiries, which happen every third Friday of the month, and if that Friday is a holliday, then on Thurday, etc. In this way, you will not be surprised by nasty market movements.

The recording for this chapter goes on the Internet and shows you how an economic calendar looks like, where to be found, and what are the most important economic news to be watched.