Retails sales show the difference in the total values of sales at the retail level. It is extremely important as it shows the health of the US consumer and that’s why market participants are keen to see the values of this indicator. It is calculated based on percentages and higher than forecast value implies positive outcome for the currency, and the opposite being true as well, lower than forecaster values imply a negative outcome for the currency. But one again, this should be viewed more related to the risk on/risk off environment than to the positive/negative effect on the currency.
This is a vital look at consumer spending data and stronger/weaker than expected values, or even extreme values, should reflect in the gdp as signal strength/weakness of the economy in that specific period of time.
If you are looking at our six month period that we are interpreting under this project, then one can see that a trend can’t be identified based on this period, with values fluctuating from positive to negative within that period, but with no clear signs of any kind of a trend.
Things to take into consideration when looking at the Retail Sales indicator:
- release date: monthly, about 14 days after month ends;
- release time: 12:30 GMT, during North American trading session;
- first tier data;
- vital for information regarding consumer spending.